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Adequate consideration of uncertainty and flexibility in investment planning - the example of a purchasable sales contract with fixed prices


, : Adequate consideration of uncertainty and flexibility in investment planning - the example of a purchasable sales contract with fixed prices. Agrarwirtschaft 53(4): 157-168

Investment decisions are, as a rule, characterized by uncertainty, irreversibility and flexibility. Simple net present value calculations will not account for these features. In many situations even flexible investment planning with decision trees, which represents the most advanced method of traditional investment appraisal, does not have the capacity to solve practical decision problems adequately. One handicap is a realistic and manageable representation of stochastic variables.

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