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Hierarchical model of seismicity; scaling and predictability

, : Hierarchical model of seismicity; scaling and predictability. Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors 103(1-2): 135-150

One considers the problem of the prediction of strong events in a hierarchical model of blocks moving in two directions. The model exhibits a linear magnitude-frequency relationship with variations in time of the local slope, a behavior which is referred to as dynamic self-organized criticality. An algorithm of prediction is based on this variation of the local slope of the magnitude-frequency relationship. A wide range of predictability is observed when varying the parameters of the model. The relationship between the predictability of synthetic catalogs and some of the parameters of the model is investigated.


DOI: 10.1016/s0031-9201(97)00063-0

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