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The possible forecasting of the tick-borne encephalitis morbidity rate

, : The possible forecasting of the tick-borne encephalitis morbidity rate. Med Parazitol I Parazitar Bolezni 32(3): 296-302

The present work is an attempt to demonstrate, using an example of tick-borne encephalitis how, by observing regularities specific to a natural focus over many years, it becomes possible to establish and define in advance seasons of maximal epizootological and epidemiological hazards. Data were collected in Perm by an epidemiological team during 1954[long dash]1961. The epizootological intensity within the tick-borne encephalitis foci varies from year to year and depends upon fluctuations in the numbers of small forest mammals[long dash]principalby hosts of preimago tick stages. Of highest epizootological danger are the years of the so-called "settling in new places", or migration, which are characterized by an extreme liveliness and mobility of the animals. In subsequent 2 years one can see rising numbers of ticks and their increased infection rate and this, in turn, leads to a higher tick-borne encephalitis morbidity.


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