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A global model for aftershock behaviour


, : A global model for aftershock behaviour. Proceedings of the World Conference on Earthquake Engineering 12(2000

This paper considers the distribution of aftershocks in space, abundance, magnitude and time. Investigations to date all show that aftershocks have simple statistical behaviour. A previously established, homogeneous, global earthquake catalogue has been used to build a database of aftershock sequences. The catalogue has been searched for related events by a simple window in space and time. Spatial analysis of this database of aftershock sequences has lead to the definition of aftershock area A (square km) as a function of mainshock magnitude M: log (sub 10) A = M - (3.34+ or -0.03). The area includes approximately 90% of events that are close in space and time to the mainshock. It may include background seismicity. The number of aftershocks within the model area, the abundance, has been analysed as a function of mainshock magnitude. The frequency distribution of abundance has an exponential behaviour. Work on modelling this behaviour is in progress. The model for abundance has an exponential behaviour. Work on modelling this behaviour is in progress. The model for abundance of aftershocks will be combined with the established magnitude-frequency distribution of earthquakes to probabilistically predict the number of large earthquakes following a mainshock.

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