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Projection of glacier runoff in Yarkant River basin and Beida River basin, Western China


, : Projection of glacier runoff in Yarkant River basin and Beida River basin, Western China. Hydrological Processes 26(18): 0-0

Potential changes in glacier area, mass balance and runoff in the Yarkant River Basin (YRB) and Beida River Basin (BRB) are projected for the period from 211 to 25 employing the modified monthly degree-day model forced by climate change projection. Future monthly air temperature and precipitation were derived from the simple average of 17, 16 and 17 General Circulation Model (GCM) projections following the A1B, A2 and B1 scenarios, respectively. These data were downscaled to each station employing the Delta method, which computes differences between current and future GCM simulations and adds these changes to observed time series. Model parameters calibrated with observations or results published in the literature between 1961 and 26 were kept unchanged. Annual glacier runoff in YRB is projected to increase until 25, and the total runoff over glacier area in 197 is projected to increase by about 13% 35% during 211 25 relative to the average during 1961 26. Annual glacier runoff and the total runoff over glacier area in 197 in BRB is projected to increase initially and then to reach a tipping point during 211 23. There are prominent increases in summer, but only small increase in May and October of glacier runoff in YRB, and significant increases during late spring and early summer and significant decreases in July and late summer of glacier runoff in BRB. This study highlights the great differences among basins in their response to future climate warming. The specific runoff from areas exposed after glacier retreat relative to 197 is projected to general increasing, which must be considered when evaluating the potential change of glacier runoff.

US$19.90

DOI: 10.1002/hyp.8373


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